📈 NAL Belief Market

Trade beliefs like stocks. Price = truth expectation. Volatility = uncertainty. Buy low-confidence, gather evidence, sell high.

Cash
$1000
Holdings
0
Net Worth
$1000
Round
1/10

How to Play

Each belief is a stock with NAL truth value (f, c). Price = truth expectation: e = f×c + 0.5×(1−c). Volatility = 1−c (low confidence = volatile).

Buy beliefs you think will gain evidence. Gather Evidence (costs $10) to boost confidence via NAL revision. Sell when price peaks. After 10 rounds, highest net worth wins!

Green bars = high frequency (likely true). Red bars = low frequency. Yellow = uncertain. Bar opacity = confidence.